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The chances of above-average winter rains have improved for California. Climate scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration this week released an updated outlook for temperature and precipitation nationwide.
The maps below show that all of California has at least a 33 percent chance of seeing higher-than-average rainfall during December. The northern part of the state has a 40 percent chance of seeing more rain.
"Some of those models are indicating for December that there may be more likelihood for rainfall that what we were thinking last month," said John Gottschalk, acting chief of the Operational Predicting Branch at NOAA.
The likelihood for above-average rainfall over the rest of the winter improves for Southern California, with a 40 percent chance of higher-than-average precipitation.
Gottschalk said that the scientists examine several factors when making their predictions, including the likelihood of an El Niño developing and several models that look at factors including sea surface temperature, near-surface temperatures and ice formation.
He said that the models have a higher success rate than traditional climatological methods.
"Our official outlooks run on average about 30 percent better than what one would do by just using a climatological forecast," Gottshalk said.
We asked Aaron Kessler, supervisor of the sports book at the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas, to compare the odds of a rainy winter to the likely success of some local sports teams.
Are 33-40 percent odds a good bet?
“To put it into perspective, it's about the same as the odds of USC pulling the upset of UCLA this weekend,” Kessler said.
Other odds (as of 11/20/2014):